Today is Good Friday, April 3, 2026. US equity markets are closed. Bitcoin is trading at $66,800, down 0.82% in 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index is at 9. Day 50 of Extreme Fear.
The headlines are brutal. The sentiment is worse.
But if you have been in crypto through a few cycles, you know that sentiment and structure are two different things. Price tells you where the crowd is feeling. Onchain data tells you where the money is actually moving.
This is the first edition of Weekly Onchain Watch: a new recurring series where I break down the five onchain metrics I am tracking most closely each week, and what they are setting up for in the period ahead.
This week: five metrics that are all pointing in the same direction heading into Q2.
Why April Matters
March 2026 closed with five consecutive red monthly candles. Bitcoin entered Q2 down roughly 47% from its $126,000 all-time high. The fear is real, the drawdown is real, and the macro backdrop (tariff uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and equity market pressure) is real.
What is also real: five onchain metrics that historically show up at exactly this type of setup.
Let us go through each one.
1. MVRV Z-Score: In the Historical Accumulation Zone
The MVRV Z-Score is the single metric I would use if I could only watch one thing. It compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization (what everyone actually paid for their coins), then normalizes the spread using a standard deviation. The result: a clean view of whether Bitcoin is historically overvalued or undervalued relative to onchain cost basis.
Current reading: approximately 1.2.
To put that in context:
- MVRV Z-Score above 7.0 historically marks cycle tops (2017: 8.3, 2021: 7.1)
- MVRV Z-Score below 0 historically marks capitulation bottoms (Dec 2018: -0.2, Mar 2020: -0.1)
- MVRV Z-Score in the 1.0 to 2.0 range is the historical mid-cycle accumulation zone
We are at 1.2. Not at capitulation. Not near a top. Sitting in the range that has, across multiple cycles, preceded meaningful multi-month recoveries.
What to watch in April: If MVRV Z-Score climbs back above 1.5 while price consolidates, that is a structural shift: buyers stepping in at current levels. If it drops below 1.0, watch for signs of short-term capitulation.
2. Bitcoin Exchange Reserves: Near an 8-Year Low
Bitcoin exchange reserves measure how much BTC is sitting on centralized exchanges available for immediate sale. The trend over the past 18 months has been relentless: outflows dominating, supply leaving exchanges and moving into cold storage and long-term wallets.
Current reading: approximately 2.21 million BTC, the lowest level since 2018.
This matters because of basic supply and demand logic. When available supply on exchanges contracts, the marginal seller has fewer coins to sell. When institutional or retail demand returns, there is less liquid inventory to absorb it. The result is often sharper price moves to the upside when sentiment finally turns.
The important nuance: exchange reserves being low does not mean price goes up tomorrow. It means the structural supply setup is tighter than it has been in nearly a decade. That is context, not a trade signal.
What to watch in April: Continued outflows from exchanges, particularly from Coinbase Pro (an institutional custodial signal), would confirm that large holders are still actively removing supply from the market at current prices.
3. Puell Multiple: Deep in Historical Accumulation Territory
The Puell Multiple measures daily miner revenue divided by the 365-day moving average of daily miner revenue. When miners are earning far below their annual average, it historically marks zones where patient buyers have been rewarded.
Current reading: approximately 0.65.
The sub-0.8 zone on the Puell Multiple has historically aligned with late bear market and early recovery phases:
- December 2018 bottom: Puell Multiple touched 0.3 to 0.4
- March 2020 COVID bottom: briefly dipped below 0.3
- November 2022 FTX bottom: approximately 0.4 to 0.5
We are at 0.65: not at those extreme lows, but firmly in what has historically been an accumulation zone. Miners are earning roughly $30 million per day against a 365-day average closer to $50 million. That gap is the story.
When miners are stressed but not capitulating (their hash rate is not collapsing), it often signals a floor is forming rather than a cascade lower.
What to watch in April: If the Puell Multiple rises back toward 1.0 while Bitcoin price stays flat or rises, that is a normalization signal, miner revenue recovering to equilibrium.
4. STH-SOPR: Short-Term Holder Capitulation
The STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio) tracks whether short-term holders (coins held less than 155 days) are selling at a profit or a loss. When STH-SOPR drops and holds below 1.0, short-term holders are realizing losses: they are selling at prices below where they bought.
That sounds bad. And it is painful for those sellers. But historically, sustained STH-SOPR compression below 1.0 has been one of the clearest signals that speculative capital is exiting and genuine accumulation is beginning.
Current context: STH-SOPR has been dipping below 1.0 for several consecutive weeks through March 2026. Short-term holders who bought during late 2025 optimism are capitulating. The weak hands are leaving.
The historical pattern: when STH-SOPR bottoms and starts recovering back above 1.0, it often marks the transition from distribution and capitulation to early accumulation. We are watching for that recovery signal in April.
What to watch in April: STH-SOPR recovering and sustaining above 1.0 would be a meaningful signal that short-term sellers have been exhausted and buyer conviction is returning at current prices.
5. Long-Term Holder Supply: At an All-Time High
Long-term holders are defined as wallets that have held their Bitcoin for more than 155 days. These are the conviction holders: the people who lived through the 2022 crash, through the 2020 COVID wipe, and are still here.
Current reading: LTH supply is at an all-time high.
Think about what that means. Bitcoin is 47% below its all-time high. Fear and Greed is at 9. Day 50 of Extreme Fear. And the cohort of people who have held their Bitcoin for six-plus months has not flinched.
LTH supply at an all-time high, combined with exchange reserves at an 8-year low, creates a structural supply squeeze: fewer coins available, and the coins that do exist are in the hands of the least likely to sell.
This has historically been the setup that precedes the next phase of the cycle: not because the timing is guaranteed, but because the structural ingredients are in place.
What to watch in April: If LTH supply starts declining while price rises, that is LTHs beginning to distribute into strength. That is a late-cycle warning, not a concern right now. For now, flat or rising LTH supply at these prices is quietly constructive.
The Full Picture: What These 5 Metrics Say Together
Take a step back and look at all five simultaneously:
| Metric | Current Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-Score | ~1.2 | Mid-cycle accumulation zone |
| Exchange Reserves | ~2.21M BTC | 8-year supply low |
| Puell Multiple | ~0.65 | Historical accumulation zone |
| STH-SOPR | Below 1.0 | Short-term capitulation in progress |
| LTH Supply | All-time high | Maximum conviction from long-term holders |
Not one of these metrics is screaming “buy right now.” Onchain data does not work like that. What these metrics do, collectively, is describe the structural setup of the market.
And the structural setup, as of April 3, 2026, is the same setup that has preceded every meaningful Bitcoin recovery in the last decade. The speculative money is exiting. The patient money is accumulating. Supply is tightening while conviction is building.
That is not a prediction. It is what the data says.
What Could Change This View
Onchain data is not infallible. Here are the scenarios that would challenge this bullish structural read:
- MVRV Z-Score drops below 0: Would signal genuine capitulation with the average holder underwater
- Exchange reserves reverse and start climbing: Would indicate institutional and large holders are moving coins back to sell
- LTH supply starts declining sharply: Would mean long-term holders are distributing into weakness, a much more bearish signal
- Macro escalation: The tariff situation and geopolitical pressure could drive correlated asset selloffs that override onchain signals temporarily
The data says structure is favorable. Macro and sentiment could delay the timeline. Watching both.
Follow Along Every Week
This is the first edition of Weekly Onchain Watch. Every week, I will run through these five metrics (and occasionally swap in others based on what is most relevant) to give you a consistent baseline for reading the market through data rather than headlines.
If you are new here, start with the foundational posts:
- MVRV Z-Score Explained
- Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Explained
- Puell Multiple Explained
- How to Identify Bitcoin Accumulation Zones
Follow @OnchainDecoded on X for daily onchain observations between weekly editions.
All onchain data referenced in this article is sourced from Glassnode and CryptoQuant. Not financial advice.
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