The seasonal narrative says “Sell in May.” The onchain data is not reading the calendar.
Bitcoin closed April up 12%. That’s two consecutive positive months after a 40%+ drawdown. A setup that has appeared only a handful of times in Bitcoin’s history, and every prior instance preceded further upside. The data isn’t promising a repeat. It’s flagging that the structural conditions look familiar.
Here’s what five key onchain metrics show heading into May 2026, and what each one means for the weeks ahead.
The “Sell in May” Narrative vs. What the Data Shows
Every spring, the old stock market adage makes its way into crypto circles. The thesis: May through October underperform, so reduce exposure and come back in November.
Bitcoin doesn’t have seasons. It has cycles. And the onchain metrics that have reliably tracked those cycles across every prior top and bottom are telling a different story than the calendar.
1. MVRV Z-Score: Still in the Value Zone
The MVRV Z-Score measures where Bitcoin’s market cap sits relative to its realized cap, which is the aggregate cost basis of every BTC ever moved on-chain. A Z-Score above 7 has historically marked cycle tops. A Z-Score below 0 has marked cycle bottoms.
As of early May 2026, MVRV Z-Score remains in the value zone. Not overheated. Not anywhere close to the readings that preceded the 2017, 2019, or 2021 peaks.
What this means: the average Bitcoin holder is sitting in modest unrealized profit relative to historical norms. Long-term holders accumulated at lower levels and are not distributing. The metric is not flagging late-cycle behavior.
Worth noting: in the 2019 cycle, MVRV stayed in the value zone for months after back-to-back positive monthly closes. Price did not top until the metric reached significantly elevated readings.
2. STH-SOPR: Above 1.0 and Holding
Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) measures whether coins held for less than 155 days are being spent at a profit or a loss. When STH-SOPR is above 1.0, short-term holders are selling for profit on average. When it’s below 1.0, they’re realizing losses.
STH-SOPR spent all of Q1 2026 below 1.0, twelve consecutive weeks of short-term holders realizing losses on average. That’s not what bull markets look like. That’s what bear traps look like.
In mid-April, STH-SOPR crossed back above 1.0. Then it held. For over three weeks, short-term holders have been spending coins at a profit on average. The 1.0 level acts as a behavioral threshold. Sustained readings above it, after an extended period below, have historically marked the transition from correction to expansion rather than the beginning of a top.
As of early May, STH-SOPR remains above 1.0. For a deeper look at how this metric works and what its historical readings have signaled, see the STH-SOPR explainer.
3. Exchange Reserves: Near 7-Year Lows
The number of BTC sitting on centralized exchanges has been declining for three consecutive years. Coins leaving exchanges means less liquid supply available to sell. It’s structural tightening of the float.
Exchange reserves entered May 2026 near 7-year lows, roughly 2.05 to 2.1M BTC across major exchanges, down from over 3M BTC in 2021. Every prior cycle top saw exchange reserves elevated or rising. Distribution phases are characterized by coins moving to exchanges in preparation for selling. That pattern is absent right now. Coins are leaving exchanges, not arriving.
The “Sell in May” thesis requires someone to sell at scale. The supply side isn’t showing up. For context on this metric’s historical behavior, see the Bitcoin exchange reserves explainer.
4. Coin Days Destroyed: Suppressed
Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) measures when dormant Bitcoin moves. Every coin accumulates “coin days” for every day it sits unmoved. When those coins finally transact, those days are destroyed.
CDD has been suppressed throughout 2026. Bitcoin holders who accumulated at $30K, $20K, $10K are not moving their coins. Not at $65K. Not at $78K.
In November 2021, CDD elevated for weeks before the cycle top. Old coins moved into the rally. Patient capital was exiting. That behavioral pattern is not present now. A suppressed CDD reading is a conviction signal. The hands that have seen every cycle are choosing not to sell at these prices.
5. Funding Rates: Near Zero
Perpetual futures funding rates are near zero across major exchanges as Bitcoin trades near $79K.
In 2021, at comparable price levels relative to that cycle, funding rates averaged 0.05 to 0.08% per 8-hour period, over 100% annualized. Traders were paying heavily to stay long. That level of positive funding built the leveraged crowding that made the eventual correction into a liquidation cascade.
Current funding rates are near neutral. Nobody is paying a premium to stay long. The derivatives layer is not building concentrated long exposure that historically precedes violent mean-reversions. This doesn’t predict price direction. It does say the risk profile is structurally different from prior overheated phases.
What to Watch in May 2026
Five metrics, all in structural alignment. None flagging the warning signals that preceded prior cycle tops. That doesn’t mean price can’t correct. It means the data isn’t making the case for one.
STH Realized Price (~$79K): Bitcoin reclaimed the short-term holder cost basis in late April. When STH-SOPR holds above 1.0 after reclaiming this level, the level historically transitions from resistance to support. Watch whether BTC sustains above ~$79K and whether STH-SOPR holds.
MVRV 2.0 threshold: Current MVRV Z-Score sits well below 2.0. A move above that level marks a shift toward neutral territory, still far from the 5.0 to 7.0+ readings that have historically preceded tops, but worth tracking as price advances.
CDD spike watch: Any multi-day sustained CDD elevation warrants attention. Old coins moving is a behavioral shift. Currently flat.
Funding rate trend: If BTC breaks into the $85K to $90K range, watch whether funding rates start trending persistently positive. Neutral funding can remain neutral in trending markets. Persistent positive funding at elevated prices is a different signal.
The Pulse: May 2026 Summary
| Metric | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-Score | Value zone | No cycle top signal |
| STH-SOPR | Above 1.0, held 3+ weeks | Structural expansion signal |
| Exchange Reserves | Near 7-year lows | No distribution |
| Coin Days Destroyed | Suppressed | LTH conviction intact |
| Funding Rates | Near zero | No leveraged crowding |
Five metrics. No cycle top signals. The “Sell in May” narrative has to explain what the blockchain is showing first.
For the April 2026 data recap that sets the context for this Pulse, see Onchain Pulse #8: Bitcoin Onchain Data, April 2026 Recovery. For the MVRV Z-Score framework referenced throughout, the MVRV Z-Score explainer is the place to start.
Onchain Pulse is a regular data summary from @OnchainDecoded. Not financial advice.
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