Every week I run the same onchain checklist. Not because I enjoy staring at charts, but because five specific metrics tell you things about Bitcoin that price charts cannot. Here is what the data shows heading into the final week of May 2026.
Where We Are: BTC Context
Bitcoin is trading around $79,000 as of late May 2026. Crypto Twitter is debating whether this is the cycle top, whether the halving has been “priced in,” and whether June brings a seasonal selloff. The onchain data is less dramatic. Here is what it is actually showing.
Metric 1: MVRV Z-Score. Still in the Value Zone
MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap, then normalizes by standard deviation. When the Z-Score climbs above 7, every cycle top in Bitcoin’s history has formed. When it drops below 0, those have been the cycle bottoms.
Right now, MVRV Z-Score sits around 1.2 to 1.5. That is value zone territory. Not undervalued like the 2022 bottom, but nowhere near overheated. For context: the 2021 cycle top saw MVRV Z-Score above 7. The 2017 top saw it above 9. At $79,000 in May 2026, the metric is not flashing a cycle-top warning.
What to watch: If MVRV Z-Score starts climbing above 3.0 while price is also rising, that changes the risk profile. For now, it remains in the accumulation-to-value transition zone. Full breakdown: MVRV Z-Score Explained.
Metric 2: Reserve Risk. Deep Green for Months
Reserve Risk measures the confidence of long-term Bitcoin holders relative to the current price. It tracks how much patience is being applied, and whether that patience is being rewarded.
The formula uses HODL Bank, a cumulative measure of coin-holding time that only grows when long-term holders are accumulating. When Reserve Risk is in the green zone, it means LTH conviction is high relative to current price. Red zone means the opposite.
Reserve Risk has been deep green for over six months. That is an extended period of unrewarded long-term holder patience. Historically, this kind of sustained green zone precedes significant price appreciation, not cycle tops. The green zone does not last forever. But it also does not break while every other indicator remains calm.
What to watch: When Reserve Risk starts approaching the orange zone as price climbs, that is when LTH conviction begins to get rewarded enough to potentially trigger distribution. We are not there.
Metric 3: Puell Multiple. Miners Are Not Stressed
The Puell Multiple tracks daily miner revenue against a 365-day moving average. When miners are earning well above their long-term average, they tend to sell. When they are earning below it, they hold. The ratio captures that dynamic.
Green zone is Puell Multiple below 0.5 to 0.8, historically the region of accumulation and cycle bottoms. Red zone is above 2.5 to 4.0, historically the region of cycle tops. Right now, Puell Multiple is in the green zone.
After the April 2024 halving cut miner revenue roughly in half, miners have been operating under compressed revenue conditions. That compression keeps Puell suppressed, which is a structural signal of mid-cycle, not late-cycle behavior. At the 2017 and 2021 cycle tops, miners were net sellers for weeks before the peak. This week tells a different story.
What to watch: Rising Puell Multiple alongside rising Bitcoin price. When Puell starts climbing toward 1.5 and above, miner revenue is heating up and sell pressure may increase.
Metric 4: Coin Days Destroyed. Old Holders Are Still Sitting
Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) measures how long Bitcoin stays dormant before moving. One coin held for 100 days generates 100 coin days. When it moves, those 100 days are destroyed.
CDD spikes mean old Bitcoin is moving. CDD suppressed means old Bitcoin is sitting still. At cycle tops, CDD spikes as long-term holders who bought years earlier finally see their patience rewarded and begin distributing into the rally. That movement shows up in CDD data before price rolls over.
Right now, CDD is suppressed. Old Bitcoin has been sitting still through the entire $65K to $79K recovery move. The cohort with the most conviction has not been distributing. This is one of the cleanest anti-cycle-top signals available. Tops are loud in CDD. This week is quiet.
What to watch: A sustained spike in CDD while price is also elevated would warrant closer attention. That has not happened.
Metric 5: RHODL Ratio. Long-Term Holders Dominant
The RHODL Ratio compares the wealth held by recent buyers (coins moved in the last week) to wealth held by long-term holders (coins held 1 to 2 years). When recent buyers dominate, RHODL spikes. When LTH dominates, it stays low.
At Bitcoin’s 2017 cycle top, RHODL spiked above 50. At the 2021 top, the same. Those spikes indicated speculative capital had taken over from patient capital. Distribution was underway. Right now, RHODL is LTH-dominant. The same reading appeared in mid-2020, before the cycle really got going.
What to watch: RHODL approaching previous cycle spike levels (40+) while other metrics are also elevated would confirm late-cycle conditions. The current reading does not.
Summary: What the Data Says This Week
| Metric | Current Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-Score | ~1.2 to 1.5 | Value zone, no cycle top warning |
| Reserve Risk | Deep green | Extended LTH patience, historically bullish |
| Puell Multiple | Green zone | Miners not stressed, mid-cycle behavior |
| Coin Days Destroyed | Suppressed | Old holders not distributing |
| RHODL Ratio | LTH-dominant | Patient capital in control, not speculative |
Five metrics. Five signals pointing the same direction. None of them are screaming cycle top. That does not mean Bitcoin cannot pull back. Markets do whatever they want in the short term. But the onchain structural picture heading into late May 2026 is not what cycle tops look like.
For the full monthly analysis, see Onchain Pulse #11. To understand the full multi-metric accumulation framework, start with How to Identify Bitcoin Accumulation Zones.
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