This is the weekly check on five Bitcoin onchain metrics. It was written before the week it covers, so there are no prices in it and no forecasts. What follows is a list of what to look at and the specific level on each chart that would change the reading. Sources are Glassnode Studio, CryptoQuant and mempool.space, all of which have free tiers.
1. Short-term holder MVRV
This compares what recent buyers paid against what their coins are worth now. It is the cleanest read on whether the marginal buyer is in profit or under water. Above 1.0 means the average recent entry is profitable and holders have the option to sell into strength. Below 1.0 means recent buyers are sitting on losses, which historically clusters around local bottoms rather than tops. The level worth marking is 1.0 itself. Crossing it in either direction is more informative than the absolute value. We covered the mechanics in Short-Term Holder MVRV Explained.
2. Exchange reserves
Reserves measure how much Bitcoin sits in known exchange wallets. A falling reserve is usually read as coins moving to self-custody and away from immediate sale. A rising reserve is the opposite. The trap is that reserve changes also reflect custodial reshuffles and ETF plumbing, so a single large move is not automatically a demand signal. Watch the 30-day trend, not the daily print. Background in Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Explained.
3. Long-term holder supply
Coins that have not moved in 155 days or more count as long-term holder supply. When this series rises, patient holders are absorbing coins. When it falls, they are distributing. Distribution during strength is normal and does not by itself mark a top, but sustained falls of several hundred thousand coins over a month have preceded past cycle peaks. See Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Explained.
4. Spot ETF net flows
Daily creations and redemptions across the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are the closest thing to a live read on institutional demand. A single day of outflows means very little. Five consecutive sessions in one direction means something. Flow data is published with a one-day lag, so compare it to price with that offset rather than same-day. More in Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows Explained.
5. Hash rate and difficulty
Hash rate tells you how much computing power is securing the network, difficulty tells you how the protocol has responded. A difficulty adjustment that comes in negative after a stretch of rising hash rate usually means miners switched off, which is a cost signal rather than a price signal. Miners are forced sellers when margins compress, so this feeds into supply. Details in Bitcoin Hash Rate vs Difficulty Explained.
How to use this list
Five metrics is a deliberate limit. Checking thirty charts produces a feeling of thoroughness and no decisions. Pick the two that have actually changed your mind before, and treat the rest as context. If any of these terms are unfamiliar, the onchain glossary defines them and the metrics guide collects every explainer in one place.
What is deliberately not on this list
No price-derived ratios. MVRV, the Mayer Multiple and the rest are useful for locating where the market sits within its own history, but price is an input to their calculation, so they cannot tell you anything about price that price has not already told you. They belong in a positioning review rather than a weekly watch.
No social sentiment. It is real data and it is reliably a lagging measure of what already moved. No single exchange in isolation either, because one venue is an operational story rather than a market one. The list above was built so that each item could move without the others moving, which is the property that makes a short list worth more than a long one.
Common questions
How often should I check these? Weekly is enough for all five. Onchain data is slow-moving by design and daily checking mostly adds noise.
Do I need a paid data subscription? No. Every metric here is available on a free tier somewhere, though history depth and update frequency are usually limited.
Which one matters most? There is no single answer, and anyone who gives you one is selling something. Short-term holder MVRV is the most responsive to market turns, which makes it the most useful and the most prone to false signals.
This is research and education, not financial advice. Onchain Decoded does not make price predictions.
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