The standard MVRV ratio is one of the most useful onchain valuation tools, but it has a blind spot: it blends every coin in existence into a single number, mixing ancient holders sitting on enormous gains with buyers from last week. To understand short-term market moves, you need to zoom in on the group that actually drives them. That is what Short-Term Holder MVRV, or STH-MVRV, does.
A quick MVRV refresher
MVRV compares market value to realized value, in other words current price against the average price holders actually paid. Above 1.0 means the average holder is in profit, below 1.0 means in loss. If this is new, our MVRV Z-Score explainer covers the foundation, and realized cap explains the cost-basis side.
Why split out short-term holders?
Onchain analysts split the market at the 155-day line. Coins that last moved less than 155 days ago are short-term holder supply, the recent buyers. Coins older than that are long-term holders. The two groups behave completely differently. Long-term holders are patient and rarely panic. Short-term holders are reactive, emotional, and far more likely to sell into volatility. Because they are the marginal buyers and sellers, short-term holders drive most of the near-term price action. Our guide to the 155-day line covers the split.
What STH-MVRV measures
STH-MVRV applies the MVRV calculation only to short-term holder supply. It compares the current price to the average cost basis of coins bought in roughly the last five months. The result is a precise read on whether recent buyers, as a group, are in profit or pain:
- STH-MVRV above 1.0: recent buyers are in aggregate profit. Their average entry is below current price.
- STH-MVRV below 1.0: recent buyers are underwater. The cohort is sitting on losses.
- STH-MVRV at 1.0: the short-term holder cohort is at break-even. This level is the cost basis the market tends to defend.
Why the 1.0 level matters so much
The 1.0 line on STH-MVRV is one of the most important levels in onchain analysis because it represents the short-term holder cost basis. In bull markets, this level repeatedly acts as support. When price dips toward it, recent buyers who are near break-even are reluctant to sell at a loss, and new demand often steps in around their average entry, bouncing price off the line.
When that support fails and STH-MVRV pushes well below 1.0, it signals that recent buyers are deeply underwater. That can trigger capitulation, but historically deep STH-MVRV lows have also marked excellent risk-reward zones, because they represent points of maximum short-term holder pain. In bear markets, the inverse applies: the 1.0 level often flips to resistance, as underwater buyers sell into any rally that lets them escape at break-even.
STH-MVRV vs STH-SOPR
These two are close cousins and best read together. STH-MVRV measures unrealized profit and loss for recent buyers, in other words whether they are above or below water on paper. STH-SOPR measures realized profit and loss, whether the coins they actually sell are moving at a gain or loss. MVRV tells you the pressure that is building, SOPR tells you when it is being released. Read with our STH-SOPR guide, they give you both the setup and the action.
The takeaway
STH-MVRV sharpens the blunt aggregate MVRV into a focused read on the buyers who actually move the short-term market. The 1.0 level, the recent buyer cost basis, acts as support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends, making it one of the cleanest lines to watch during corrections and recoveries. Pair it with STH-SOPR for the full picture of what recent buyers are feeling and doing. Not financial advice, always do your own research.
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