Mid-July offers a useful checkpoint. June stress-tested Bitcoin with a roughly 20 percent drawdown from the end-of-May high near $73.7K to a low around $59K, yet the onchain structure held as reserves drained and old coins stayed dormant. With the second half of the year settling into its rhythm, here are five metrics worth watching now to gauge whether that resilience is carrying through.
1. Percent Supply in Profit
This metric shows the share of all circulating Bitcoin currently worth more than the price at which it last moved. It is one of the clearest ways to read market psychology, because high readings point toward euphoria and low readings toward capitulation.
The bands matter most at the extremes. When supply in profit climbs into the high 90s, the market is often overheated and prone to profit-taking. When it falls toward the lower bands during a sell-off, it can mark capitulation and exhaustion. The signal to watch in mid-July is where the figure sits relative to those bands, and whether it is rising or cooling. Our percent supply in profit explainer details the historical zones.
2. Exchange Reserves
Exchange reserves measure how much Bitcoin sits on trading platforms ready to be sold. A continued decline signals that holders are moving coins into self-custody, which typically reduces near-term sell pressure.
The drain held through June, which was an encouraging sign during stress. The threshold to watch now is continuity: ongoing outflows confirm accumulation behavior, while a sustained reversal of coins flowing back onto exchanges would be the early warning that holders are positioning to sell.
3. STH-SOPR
The Short-Term Spent Output Profit Ratio tracks whether recently moved coins are being sold at a profit or a loss, with 1.0 as the pivotal line. STH-SOPR reclaimed 1.0 during the June dip, signaling that newer buyers stopped capitulating.
For mid-July the watch is whether that hold persists. A clean stay above 1.0 keeps the recovery base intact, while repeated failures below it would suggest fresh buyers are underwater again. Our STH-SOPR explainer covers why the level matters.
4. Hash Rate vs Difficulty
Hash rate measures the total computing power securing the Bitcoin network, while difficulty adjusts to keep block times steady. Comparing the two gives a read on network security and miner health.
When hash rate grows and difficulty rises to match, the network is expanding and miners are committed. When hash rate falls sharply, it can signal miner stress and potential forced selling to cover costs. The signal to watch is a steadily rising or stable hash rate relative to difficulty, which points to a healthy, secure network without an obvious supply overhang. See our hash rate vs difficulty guide for the full picture.
5. Accumulation Trend Score
The Accumulation Trend Score reflects whether market participants, weighted by the size of their holdings, are adding to or reducing their positions. Scores near 1 indicate broad accumulation, while scores near 0 indicate distribution.
This metric answers the question of who is buying. A score trending toward 1 suggests larger entities and the broader market are accumulating, which is supportive of the base built during June. A drift toward 0 would indicate distribution and warrant closer attention. Watching the direction of this score gives a sense of whether conviction is deepening or fading.
What to Watch
Mid-July is about confirmation rather than calling a direction. Track percent supply in profit for its position within the euphoria and capitulation bands, exchange reserves for a continued drain, STH-SOPR for a hold above 1.0, hash rate versus difficulty for network health, and the Accumulation Trend Score for evidence of who is buying. Together they paint a balanced picture of whether June’s resilience is strengthening or starting to soften. As always, this is a framework for reading the data, not a forecast of where price goes next.
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