Here is a deceptively simple question with a powerful answer: what percentage of all Bitcoin in existence is currently worth more than the price it was last bought at? That figure, Percent Supply in Profit, is one of the most intuitive onchain sentiment gauges available. It turns the entire network’s profit and loss into a single number that tracks euphoria and despair across cycles.
How it is calculated
Every Bitcoin lives in an unspent output with a known acquisition price, the price it last moved at onchain. Percent Supply in Profit compares each coin’s acquisition price to the current market price. If the coin is worth more now than when it last moved, it is in profit. The metric simply counts what share of the total supply is in profit at any given moment, expressed as a percentage. This builds directly on the cost-basis data behind realized cap.
What the readings mean
- Very high (above ~95%): almost everyone is in profit. This sounds great but is historically a warning. When nearly all coins are in the green, the temptation to take profit is enormous, and these extremes have clustered near euphoric cycle tops.
- Mid-range (~50% to 80%): a healthy, mid-cycle market. A solid majority of holders are in profit but the market is not euphoric.
- Very low (below ~50%): half or more of the supply is underwater. This is the territory of deep bear markets and capitulation, and the lowest readings have clustered near major cycle bottoms.
Why extremes matter more than the middle
Like most sentiment metrics, the signal lives at the edges. When Percent Supply in Profit pushes into the mid-90s, the market has a huge overhang of unrealized profit. It does not take much for that to convert into realized selling, which is why these readings precede distribution. When the metric collapses well below 50%, the market is in maximum pain. Holders who are still standing at those levels have demonstrated extreme conviction, and historically that despair has marked the best risk-reward zones.
The middle of the range is less actionable. A market with 70% of supply in profit is simply healthy, and you should look to other metrics for an edge.
How it connects to behaviour
Percent Supply in Profit measures unrealized profit and loss, the pressure that is building. To see whether that pressure is being released, you pair it with realized metrics. When supply in profit is extreme and you also see a spike in realized profit through metrics like SOPR or Net Realized P/L, that is distribution in action. When supply in profit is collapsed and you see heavy realized losses, that is capitulation. The unrealized metric sets the stage, the realized metric shows the event.
Using it without overreacting
This is a context and risk-framing tool, not a precise trigger. A high reading does not mean sell immediately, because markets can stay euphoric for weeks. A low reading does not mark the exact bottom. Treat a stretched high as a reason to tighten risk and not chase, and treat a deep low as a reason to respect that fear is high and historically has rewarded patience. Confluence with other indicators, like a stretched Mayer Multiple, strengthens the signal considerably.
The takeaway
Percent Supply in Profit distils the entire network’s profit and loss into one readable number. Its extremes are the ones that matter: near-total profit warns of euphoric tops, while widespread loss marks capitulation bottoms. Watch the edges, confirm with realized metrics, and use it to frame risk rather than to time the market to the day. Not financial advice, always do your own research.
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