If you have read our work on SOPR, you already know the core idea: the Spent Output Profit Ratio measures whether coins are being sold at a profit or a loss. But the aggregate number hides the most important split in the market. Long-term holders and short-term holders behave very differently, and separating them is where the real signal lives. This is a deep dive on LTH-SOPR, the long-term holder version, and why it is one of the most respected distribution signals in onchain analysis.
A quick SOPR refresher
SOPR is calculated by dividing the value of a coin when it is sold by the value when it was acquired. Above 1.0 means coins are moving at a profit. Below 1.0 means they are moving at a loss. At exactly 1.0, the market is selling at break-even, which often acts as psychological support and resistance. If this is new, start with our STH-SOPR explainer.
Who counts as a long-term holder?
The standard threshold is 155 days. Coins that have not moved for more than 155 days are classified as long-term holder supply. The reasoning is statistical: once a coin has sat still for roughly five months, it becomes far less likely to be sold in response to short-term volatility. These are the patient hands, the investors who bought lower and intend to wait. Our guide to the 155-day line covers this split in detail.
What LTH-SOPR actually tells you
LTH-SOPR isolates the spending behaviour of those patient holders. Because long-term holders bought at much lower prices, their SOPR readings tend to be large numbers. A long-term holder selling coins bought two years ago at a fraction of today’s price registers a very high profit ratio.
The signal is in the trend, not the raw value:
- Rising LTH-SOPR: long-term holders are increasingly selling into strength, taking large profits. Sustained spikes are a classic sign of late-cycle distribution.
- Low or falling LTH-SOPR: patient holders are mostly inactive or selling reluctantly. This is typical of accumulation phases and early bull markets.
- Sharp spikes near highs: when LTH-SOPR surges while price is at new highs, it often means the smartest money is handing coins to newer buyers. That transfer of supply from old to new hands is one of the defining features of a cycle top.
LTH-SOPR vs STH-SOPR: reading them together
The two are most powerful side by side. STH-SOPR tells you whether recent buyers are defending their cost basis. LTH-SOPR tells you whether veterans are cashing out. The healthiest bull phases show STH-SOPR holding above 1.0 while LTH-SOPR stays relatively subdued, meaning new buyers are confident and old hands are not yet rushing for the exit. The danger setup is the inverse: LTH-SOPR spiking hard while STH-SOPR weakens, which signals distribution into fading demand.
How to use it without overreacting
One spike does not make a top. Long-term holders take profit throughout a bull market, and some selling is normal and healthy. The signal to respect is a sustained, elevated LTH-SOPR over weeks, especially when it coincides with other late-cycle indicators like a stretched MVRV or a Pi Cycle Top warning. Onchain analysis is about confluence, not single metrics. See our Pi Cycle Top guide for a complementary top signal.
The takeaway
LTH-SOPR turns a blunt aggregate into a window on the market’s most informed participants. When patient money starts taking large profits in a sustained way, it is one of the earliest and most reliable hints that a cycle is maturing. Watch it alongside STH-SOPR, and you get a clear read on both ends of the market at once. Not financial advice, always do your own research.
Common questions
What does a reading above 1 mean? Long-term holders are spending coins at a profit. Sustained readings well above 1 indicate genuine distribution by the most patient cohort, which is behaviour that has accompanied past cycle peaks.
How is it different from aSOPR? aSOPR covers all spent outputs, so it is dominated by short-term churn. Restricting it to coins held longer than 155 days isolates the decisions of holders with the longest time horizons, which is a much smaller and more informative population.
Does a spike mean a top is in? No. It means patient supply is being realised, which can continue for months. It describes who is selling rather than when the selling ends.
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