Onchain Pulse returns deep into July with the same goal as always: to read Bitcoin’s on-chain behavior rather than its price chart. June was a genuine stress test, and how the network responded to it sets the backdrop for everything that follows. This edition walks through the framework we are using to judge whether the structure that held in June is still holding now.
The June base
To understand July, start with June. Price fell from roughly its late-May high to an early-June low, a drawdown of about 20%, then bounced toward the middle of the month and settled range-bound in the low-to-mid $60Ks. Drawdowns of that size often shake out leverage and weak hands. What stood out was how quiet the on-chain side stayed: exchange reserves kept draining, long-dormant coins did not move, and Short-Term Holder SOPR reclaimed 1.0. The drawdown happened in price, not in conviction.
Holder conviction
The clearest read on conviction is whether old coins move. Through June they largely did not, which tells us long-term holders treated the dip as noise rather than a reason to exit. That behavior is the backbone of a resilient market, because supply held by patient owners is supply that is not pressuring the order book. Deeper into July, the framework is simple: as long as aged supply stays dormant and accumulation continues quietly, the conviction base remains intact. The warning sign would be a wave of old coins waking up and moving toward exchanges.
Exchange supply trend
Exchange reserves are the supply-side story. The June drain meant coins were leaving trading venues for self-custody, shrinking the pool immediately available to sell. That trend is one of the most reliable signals of accumulation, because it reflects choices made with real coins, not sentiment surveys. Heading further into July, the continuation of that drain is the bullish-leaning tell to confirm. A clear reversal, with reserves climbing as coins flow back onto exchanges, would be the first structural crack to take seriously. For the mechanics, see Bitcoin exchange reserves explained.
The profit and loss balance
Every coin on-chain is either in profit or in loss relative to when it last moved, and the balance between the two shapes selling pressure. STH-SOPR reclaiming 1.0 in June meant recent buyers were, on average, back above water, which reduces the urge to sell at a loss. The framework deeper into July is to watch whether STH-SOPR keeps defending the 1.0 line as support. Repeated holds there point to dip-buying conviction. A sustained break below it would mean short-term holders are underwater again and more likely to capitulate. Our STH-SOPR explainer covers how to read the 1.0 pivot.
Where valuation sits
Zooming out, valuation context comes from cycle-scale tools. The MVRV Z-Score compares market value to realized value and historically helps frame whether Bitcoin is trading rich, fair, or cheap relative to its own history. We are not using it to call a top or a bottom in July, only to know which part of the range we are in. A mid-range reading argues for patience rather than extremes in either direction. See the MVRV Z-Score guide for the full picture.
What would confirm, what would warn
Pulling it together, continuation would be confirmed by the same signals stacking up: reserves still draining, aged supply still dormant, STH-SOPR holding above 1.0, and valuation sitting in a balanced zone. A turn would announce itself differently: reserves rising, old coins moving, STH-SOPR breaking down, and selling pressure building across cohorts. The value of the on-chain lens is that these shifts usually show up in behavior before they show up decisively in price.
What to watch
Deep into July, the story is one of a structure that held under pressure and now has to prove it can keep holding. We are watching the same handful of behaviors that defined June: where coins are moving, whether holders are selling, and where valuation sits. None of this is a prediction or financial advice. It is a framework for reading what the network is actually doing, one block at a time.
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