Bitcoin has been ranging between $76K and $80K for most of May 2026. Crypto Twitter keeps calling the top. Funding rates are near zero. Exchange reserves are at structural lows. Old coins are not moving.
The onchain data is telling a different story than the price action. Here is what five key metrics are showing in late May 2026.
BTC price at time of writing: approximately $78,000
1. MVRV Z-Score: Value Zone Holds
The MVRV Z-Score divides market cap by realized cap and normalizes the result for volatility. Readings above 7.0 have coincided with every Bitcoin cycle top since 2013. Readings below 0.1 have marked cycle bottoms.
Current reading: approximately 1.4 to 1.6.
That is the value zone. Not overheated. Not neutral. Value, meaning the average holder is in modest unrealized profit, not the kind of euphoria that precedes distribution at scale.
For context: the November 2021 peak at $69K saw MVRV Z-Score above 7.0. The April 2024 run toward $108K saw readings near 3.5 at peak. A reading of 1.5 at $78K is not consistent with late-cycle conditions. The MVRV Z-Score is not signaling a top. Not even close.
2. STH-SOPR: Six Weeks Above 1.0
STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio) tracks whether coins held for less than 155 days are being sold at a profit or a loss. The 1.0 level is the critical threshold.
- Above 1.0: short-term holders are selling into profit. Market is in expansion mode.
- Below 1.0: short-term holders are taking losses. Bear market behavior.
STH-SOPR crossed above 1.0 in mid-April 2026 and has stayed there for six consecutive weeks.
In the 2020 to 2021 bull run, STH-SOPR held above 1.0 for 11 straight months before the cycle topped. Six weeks in, we are at the beginning of that pattern, not the end.
For comparison: the 2019 bear market rally held STH-SOPR above 1.0 for roughly three weeks before reversing. The current run is already double that length. Six weeks above 1.0 is expansion confirmation. The data is not reading distribution.
3. Exchange Reserves: Structural Supply Compression
Bitcoin exchange reserves have been contracting for three years. The current level sits at multi-year lows. The BTC available to sell on major exchanges has declined steadily since the FTX collapse in late 2022, not from panic exits, but from systematic, consistent withdrawal to cold storage.
Supply compression of this kind has preceded each significant price leg in this cycle. Fewer coins on exchanges means less immediately available sell pressure. It does not guarantee upside, but it removes a structural headwind.
When coins leave exchanges, they go into cold storage. That is not distribution. That is the opposite of distribution. No top signal here.
4. Coin Days Destroyed: Old Hands Are Staying Still
CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) measures the movement of old coins. One Bitcoin held for 100 days creates 100 coin days. When that Bitcoin is spent, 100 coin days are “destroyed.” High CDD means old coins are moving. Low CDD means they are staying still.
At the 2017 cycle top, CDD spiked for weeks as long-term holders distributed into strength. The 2021 cycle top showed the same pattern: sustained CDD spikes months before the peak, as coins aged 1 to 3 years rotated into the market.
Right now, CDD is suppressed. Old coins are aging, not moving. The cohort that has been correct at every major cycle turning point is not distributing at $78K. They are accumulating coin days. That is the patience signal.
5. ETH Onchain: Supply Mechanics Tightening
Each Onchain Pulse includes a rotation check on the broader market. This month: Ethereum.
ETH exchange reserves currently sit at approximately 16 million ETH. In 2021, that figure was above 30 million. Fourteen million ETH has been withdrawn and has not returned over that period. Meanwhile, 34 million ETH is now staked, roughly 28% of total supply locked and earning yield rather than sitting on exchanges available to sell.
Post-Merge, Ethereum issues approximately 90% less ETH per year compared to the proof-of-work era. EIP-1559 burns a portion of every transaction fee. The structural supply picture for ETH has shifted materially since 2021. The onchain layer is tightening even when price is flat.
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What the Data Is Actually Saying
Five metrics. All mid-cycle. None of them are reading the conditions that preceded the 2017, 2021, or any prior Bitcoin peak:
- MVRV Z-Score: 1.4 to 1.6, value zone, not overheated
- STH-SOPR: six weeks above 1.0, expansion structure confirmed
- Exchange Reserves: structural lows, float compressed since 2022
- Coin Days Destroyed: suppressed, long-term holders not distributing
- ETH onchain: exchange supply at historic lows, 28% of supply staked
The ranging price action is generating uncertainty on CT. The onchain data is not uncertain. It is showing the same mid-cycle patience structure that preceded larger moves in prior cycles.
Onchain data measures structure, not timing. The structure right now does not look like a cycle top.
What Would Change This Read
Three signals would flip this analysis from constructive to cautious:
- MVRV Z-Score above 3.0: approaching overheated territory for the first time this cycle
- Sustained CDD spike for 2 or more weeks: old coins starting to distribute
- STH-SOPR dropping back below 1.0 and holding: short-term holders returning to loss realization
None of those conditions are present right now. Watch the data, not the narrative. The next Onchain Pulse will cover the June 2026 data. Follow Onchain Decoded for weekly onchain updates between pulse posts.
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