Every Bitcoin bull run ends. The question isn’t whether the cycle will turn — it always has — but whether you’ll be able to recognize the top when it’s happening, rather than only in hindsight.
Onchain data has a remarkable track record of answering that question in advance. The 7 indicators below have collectively signaled every major Bitcoin cycle top since 2013. None of them predict the exact date. All of them have historically moved into danger territory in the weeks and months before the price peaked — giving informed investors a structured framework for knowing when to reduce risk.
Here’s the most important thing about all 7 right now: not one of them is flashing red. After a 47% drawdown from Bitcoin’s $126,296 all-time high on October 6, 2025, the cycle top indicators have reset. That’s the story the data is telling in March 2026.
Quick Reference: Where All 7 Stand Today
The table below gives you the current status of each indicator at a glance. Green = no danger signal. Yellow = elevated but not extreme. Red = historically associated with cycle tops. Bookmark it, screenshot it, check it monthly.
| Indicator | Danger Reading | Current Reading (March 2026) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-Score | Above 7 | ~1.2 | 🟢 Safe |
| Pi Cycle Top | 111DMA crosses above 2×350DMA | Not crossed — wide gap | 🟢 Safe |
| NUPL | Above 0.75 (Euphoria) | ~0.35–0.45 (Optimism/Belief) | 🟢 Safe |
| Puell Multiple | Above 4.0 | ~1.2 | 🟢 Safe |
| STH-SOPR | Sustained above 1.05–1.1 | Just above 1.0 since Feb 16 | 🟢 Safe |
| Exchange Inflows | Sustained spike in reserves | Falling from 2.761M BTC peak | 🟢 Safe |
| RHODL Ratio | Extreme tilt toward new coins | Balanced — LTH supply near ATH | 🟢 Safe |
All seven are safe. That means the structural conditions that have historically preceded cycle tops are not present in the current market. What follows is the full explanation of what each indicator measures, what the danger signal looks like, and why the current reading matters.
1. MVRV Z-Score
What it measures: How far Bitcoin’s market cap has deviated above its realized cap (aggregate cost basis), normalized to standard deviations from the historical mean.
Danger signal: Above 7 — the level reached at or near every cycle top since 2013.
Current reading: ~1.2
Where to check: Bitcoin Magazine Pro MVRV Z-Score | Full deep-dive: MVRV Z-Score Explained
The MVRV Z-Score is the most widely cited single cycle-top indicator in Bitcoin onchain analysis. At the 2017 peak it reached approximately 10. At the April 2021 peak it reached ~8.5. At the October 2025 peak of $126,296 it printed approximately 3.8 — notably lower than previous cycle tops, which many analysts interpret as a sign of structural maturing rather than the kind of pure speculative excess seen in 2017.
At ~1.2 today, the MVRV Z-Score is far from the danger zone. The reading reflects the 47% drawdown from the ATH — as price falls, market cap compresses toward realized cap, bringing the ratio down. A reading of 1.2 is historically consistent with mid-cycle consolidation or early recovery phases, not the overheated conditions that precede tops.
The Z-Score would need to roughly 5× from current levels to enter historical danger territory. That is not an imminent concern.
2. Pi Cycle Top Indicator
What it measures: The relationship between two moving averages of Bitcoin’s price — the 111-day MA and the 2×350-day MA — which have historically crossed at or within 3 days of every major Bitcoin cycle top.
Danger signal: The 111DMA crosses above the 2×350DMA.
Current reading: Not crossed. The two MAs are currently separated by a wide gap.
Where to check: Bitcoin Magazine Pro Pi Cycle Top | Newhedge Pi Cycle Top
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has called the top of every major Bitcoin bull market to within 3 days since 2013 — one of the most precise cycle-top signals in existence. The signal is a crossover: when the 111-day moving average of price crosses above twice the 350-day moving average, a cycle top has historically been imminent.
At the $126,296 October 2025 top, the Pi Cycle fired. Since then, the 47% drawdown has collapsed the 111DMA well below the 2×350DMA, creating a wide gap between the two lines. For the Pi Cycle to signal again, Bitcoin’s price would need to sustain an extended bull run long enough to bring the 111DMA back up through the 2×350DMA — a process that takes months of elevated price action, not days or weeks. The Pi Cycle is not a concern at current prices.
3. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
What it measures: The ratio of unrealized profits across all Bitcoin holders relative to market cap — expressing whether the market is sitting on aggregate profits (positive) or losses (negative) and to what degree.
Danger signal: Above 0.75, historically labeled “Euphoria/Greed” — every major cycle top has appeared at or above this level.
Current reading: ~0.35–0.45 (Optimism/Belief zone)
Where to check: Bitcoin Magazine Pro NUPL
NUPL divides unrealized profit/loss by market cap, producing a normalized sentiment reading that moves from negative (holders in aggregate loss) through neutral (breakeven), optimism, belief, and euphoria. At cycle tops the reading has always been in the 0.75+ “Euphoria” zone — a state where the vast majority of the market is sitting on significant unrealized gains and the temptation to sell is near its structural maximum.
With Bitcoin having fallen 47% from its ATH, NUPL has compressed into the Optimism/Belief range — approximately 0.35–0.45. This zone has historically been associated with mid-cycle consolidation, not the overheated sentiment that precedes major tops. The 2022 bottom saw NUPL turn negative. The 2025 top saw it approach 0.7–0.75. The current reading sits roughly midway between those extremes. Full definitions: Onchain Decoded Glossary.
4. Puell Multiple
What it measures: Daily Bitcoin miner revenue (in USD) divided by the 365-day moving average of daily miner revenue — tracking whether miners are earning far above or below their historical norm.
Danger signal: Above 4.0 — the level at which miner revenues are so elevated that selling pressure from miners historically becomes a headwind for price.
Current reading: ~1.2
Where to check: Bitcoin Magazine Pro Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple was created by David Puell and measures the supply-side economics of Bitcoin mining. Miners are structurally compelled to sell a portion of their earnings to cover electricity, hardware, and operational costs — making their revenue levels a meaningful input to market supply pressure. When the Puell Multiple is very high, miners are earning dramatically more than their historical average and have strong incentive to sell. When it’s very low, miners are earning below their historical average and may be capitulating or shutting down.
Post-halving, the Puell Multiple resets structurally: the halving cuts daily BTC issuance in half, which halves the numerator of the equation overnight. The April 2024 halving compressed the Puell Multiple sharply, and it has been recovering gradually since. At ~1.2, it’s sitting at a neutral, healthy mid-range reading — nowhere near the 4.0+ danger territory seen at cycle tops. At the 2017 peak it reached 6.6. At the 2021 peak it reached approximately 3.4 — notably lower than 2017, consistent with the broader pattern of diminishing returns on cycle indicators each cycle. See also: Hash Ribbon Explained for the companion miner health indicator.
5. STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio)
What it measures: Whether coins moved on-chain by short-term holders (bought within the last 155 days) are being sold at a profit or a loss — and to what degree.
Danger signal: Sustained readings well above 1.05–1.1, indicating short-term holders are consistently selling large profits. At cycle tops, STH-SOPR has historically been elevated for extended periods before the price rollover.
Current reading: Just above 1.0 — recovered above 1.0 on February 16, 2026
Where to check: CryptoQuant STH-SOPR
STH-SOPR is one of the most behaviorally direct metrics in onchain analysis — it measures the realized profit or loss of the most reactive segment of the market in real time. A reading of 1.0 means short-term holders are selling at breakeven on average. A reading of 1.1 means they’re selling coins worth 10% more than they paid. At cycle tops, STH-SOPR has historically been elevated well above 1.0 for extended periods, reflecting the widespread profit-taking that accompanies a euphoric market.
The current reading just above 1.0 tells a completely different story. Short-term holders recovered from below-1.0 capitulation territory (selling at a loss) in mid-February and have barely re-entered profit. There is no sign of the extended elevated SOPR that historically precedes major tops. If anything, a gentle re-entry above 1.0 after a period of capitulation is historically a constructive early-recovery signal. Full explainer: Bitcoin STH-SOPR Explained.
6. Exchange Inflows (Exchange Reserve Trend)
What it measures: The total amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges and the direction of that trend — rising (coins flowing in, available to sell) or falling (coins flowing out, supply tightening).
Danger signal: A sustained surge in exchange reserves alongside elevated price — coins moving to exchanges en masse as holders prepare to sell into strength.
Current reading: Falling — peaked at 2.761M BTC in late February, declining since.
Where to check: CryptoQuant Exchange Reserve
Exchange reserve is the supply indicator — it tells you how much Bitcoin is sitting on exchanges in a position to be sold. At cycle tops, exchange reserves have historically risen significantly as long-term holders move coins from cold storage to exchanges to sell into the euphoria. The combination of elevated price + rising exchange reserves is one of the clearest distribution signals in onchain analysis.
The current picture is the structural opposite. Exchange reserves peaked at 2.761M BTC in late February 2026 — at the trough of the sentiment cycle, not the peak — and have been declining since. Bitcoin leaving exchanges during the fear period means holders are moving coins to cold storage and self-custody rather than positioning to sell. This pattern is historically consistent with accumulation behavior at cycle lows, not distribution at cycle highs. Full explainer: Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Explained.
7. RHODL Ratio
What it measures: The ratio between HODL waves of different ages — specifically comparing the value of coins last moved 1 week ago versus coins last moved 1–2 years ago. When very new coins dominate relative to mature coins, euphoric short-term speculation is overwhelming long-term holders.
Danger signal: Extreme tilt toward new coins (1-week RHODL band dominant) — a signal that fresh money is flooding in and long-term holders have largely distributed.
Current reading: Balanced — LTH supply remains near all-time highs, indicating long-term holders have not distributed into the drawdown.
Where to check: Bitcoin Magazine Pro RHODL Ratio
The RHODL Ratio is one of the most sophisticated cycle-top indicators — it doesn’t just look at price or simple metrics but at the age distribution of economic activity on the blockchain. At cycle tops, the RHODL Ratio reaches extreme highs because a flood of new, short-duration capital has entered the market during the euphoric final phase. Long-term holders, having sold into the rally, are no longer the dominant economic force — new buyers who’ve held for days or weeks are.
The current RHODL Ratio is in balanced, neutral territory. Long-term holder supply remains near all-time highs — the conviction base has not distributed at scale during this drawdown, as confirmed across multiple datasets. The lack of LTH distribution is one of the most structurally constructive signals in the current onchain picture: the patient money hasn’t left. When they eventually do sell into a future rally, the RHODL Ratio will be one of the clearest early warning signals.
What All 7 Indicators Together Tell You
The power of this framework isn’t any single indicator — it’s convergence. When multiple independent metrics simultaneously move into danger territory, the signal is reinforced across different analytical frameworks: valuation (MVRV, NUPL), miner economics (Puell Multiple), price structure (Pi Cycle), short-term behavior (STH-SOPR), supply dynamics (Exchange Inflows), and holder composition (RHODL).
At the October 2025 top, several of these were elevated simultaneously — MVRV Z-Score was above 3.5, the Pi Cycle had fired, NUPL was approaching 0.7, and exchange inflows were rising. The convergence was visible to anyone watching the dashboard. Bitcoin fell 47% over the following five months.
In March 2026, none of the 7 are in danger territory. That doesn’t tell you what Bitcoin will do next week or next month. What it tells you is that the structural conditions that have historically preceded every major cycle top are not present. The valuation metrics have reset. The behavioral metrics show recovery from capitulation, not euphoria. The supply dynamics show accumulation, not distribution.
Bookmark this article and check back monthly. When two or more of these indicators start moving into yellow territory simultaneously — that’s when to sharpen your attention. When three or more hit danger readings at the same time — that’s historically when the exit conversation becomes urgent.
For plain-English definitions of every metric covered here, the Onchain Decoded Glossary covers all 30 in one place. For a step-by-step tutorial on how to check these metrics yourself using only free tools, the Beginner’s Onchain Analysis Tutorial walks through the entire routine in 15 minutes per week. And the Monday Onchain Pulse tracks the live readings of the key metrics every week.
The 7 cycle-top indicators are the warning layer of the onchain toolkit. The deeper metric explanations behind each signal are covered in dedicated posts: MVRV Z-Score Explained, STH-SOPR Explained, Exchange Reserves Explained, and Hash Ribbon Explained. For valuation anchors, Realized Price and the NVT Ratio provide additional context. And for identifying the specific price zones where accumulation historically begins, see Bitcoin Accumulation Zones and the Thermocap Multiple.
Sources
- Bitcoin Magazine Pro — MVRV Z-Score (free live chart)
- Bitcoin Magazine Pro — Pi Cycle Top Indicator (free live chart)
- Bitcoin Magazine Pro — NUPL (free live chart)
- Bitcoin Magazine Pro — Puell Multiple (free live chart)
- CryptoQuant — STH-SOPR (free live chart)
- CryptoQuant — Exchange Reserve (free live chart)
- Bitcoin Magazine Pro — RHODL Ratio (free live chart)
- Newhedge — Pi Cycle Top Indicator (free live chart)
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.
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The information provided in this article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. Onchain News does not provide recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any asset, and nothing here should be taken as a guarantee of future performance. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile and you are responsible for your own risk.
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